Behind the "cliff-like decline" in global shipping costs, what impact does it have on Chinese products and enterprises?
The saying of "September and October 10" used to be equally applicable in the global maritime industry, but in this year's traditional peak season, the maritime market suffered from intermittent cold current. Freight rates of major shipping routes have plummeted "cliff-like". Container shipping analysts said that the background of global economic recession is dragging down the shipping market, driven by soaring energy prices and rising inflation, and this decline is likely to continue until next year. What impact will this change have on Chinese products and Chinese enterprises? The Global Times reporter investigated this.
According to the data released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange on the 9th, the comprehensive freight rate index of Shanghai's export containers was 2,562.12 points, down 10% from the previous period and falling for 13 consecutive weeks. In the data of 35 issues of Zhou Du report released by the agency this year, it has fallen for 30 weeks.
According to the data of Baltic Sea Shipping Exchange, in January this year, the price of 40-foot container on the route from China to the west coast of the United States was about 10,000 USD, and in August it was about 4,000 USD, which plunged by 60%, compared with the highest average price of 20,000 USD last year, with a drop of more than 80%. Thailand-Vietnam route market fluctuates greatly in Southeast Asia. Due to the large gap in demand for freight on the route, it drops by 37.1% in a single week. The booking price in the spot market drops sharply, and even a small amount of zero freight and negative freight appear.
According to the data of Freight Waves, a supply chain organization, at present, it is difficult to see hundreds of ships waiting for berthing in long queues in world-famous ports such as Los Angeles, Boracay and Rotterdam. As of August 29th this year, there were 50,176 containers in the port of Los Angeles, while in late November last year, this number was as high as 90,397; On that day, only eight container ships were waiting at sea to call at the port near Southern California, compared with 48 at the same time last year.
As the Christmas season is getting closer, many traders are beginning to worry about whether Chinese Christmas goods can be delivered on time. Hamburg trader Youdan told Global Times' special correspondent in Germany that before the epidemic, he went to Yiwu and other places in China every year to buy Christmas decorations, toys, bicycles and other Christmas products. Two years ago, business was seriously affected by the epidemic and supply chain disruption. This year, the shipping situation between China and Europe has improved, and the shipping price has dropped, which is a good thing for traders. The bad news is that the euro has depreciated and commodity prices have risen. Fortunately, China's prices have not experienced inflation as high as that in Europe and America.
"Although Europeans are in low consumption mood because of high inflation, Christmas is still coming, and there is still a great demand for Chinese goods." You said that Chinese goods still have great advantages in terms of price, type and quality. Although the survey shows that more than two-thirds of German companies expect delivery problems in December, he still believes that according to the current shipping situation, it will be better than last year.
Xu Kai, chief information officer of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, told the Global Times that the big data of shipping shows that in the third quarter of last year, about 30% of global container ships were at anchor, and this proportion dropped to about 26% in the same period of this year, which shows that the global shipping turnover capacity has improved; On the other hand, the demand for transport capacity in global commodity trade has declined, so it is inevitable that freight rates will go down.
Xu Kai also said that this year's "one box is hard to find" situation of export enterprises will definitely not happen again, but this does not mean that it will send a good signal of profitability to the manufacturing industry. Among the key factors that affect the profits of enterprises, freight accounts for a very small proportion, usually within 1% of the value of container goods. For domestic export enterprises, Xu Kai believes that the more important thing is the international competitiveness and sales volume of goods, while the economic recession and inflation in Europe and the United States have intensified. At the same time, the overbooked goods last year will take some time to digest, and the decline in purchasing power will continue for some time. "To solve this pain point, first, strengthen regional integration, improve the transnational management capability of China's supply chain logistics, and get through the blocking point of the supply chain; Second, it is necessary to cultivate more excellent Chinese-funded multinational enterprises and brands, improve the product design and innovative R&D capabilities of manufacturing industries, so that China can get rid of the label of' the world factory' and promote the high-quality products made by China's intelligence to attract more international consumer demand. " Xu Kai said.