Global air transportation is hard to get off to a good start

In 2022, can the global air transport show a new climate? There may be clues from the latest global air transport market data released by IATA.

In terms of freight transportation, due to the disruption of supply chain, limited transportation capacity and economic downturn, the global air freight demand growth slowed down in January 2022, with an increase of 2.7% (international demand increased by 3.2%) compared with January 2021, which was significantly lower than the growth rate in December 2021 (9.3% and 11.1%). Compared with January 2021, the transportation capacity increased by 11.4% (the international transportation capacity increased by 10.8%), but it was still limited compared with before the COVID-19 epidemic.

What is the reason for the slowdown of freight demand? IATA summarized several points: First, supply chain interruption caused by flight cancellation due to labor shortage, bad weather in severe winter, slow deployment of 5G in the United States and so on. In February, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of global new export orders fell below 50 for the first time since August 2020, and the new export orders of most enterprises participating in the survey declined. In March, the global supplier delivery time purchasing manager index (PMI) was 37.8. Although a value lower than 50 is usually beneficial to air freight, under the current conditions, due to the supply bottleneck, the delivery time will be prolonged.

Regionally, compared with the same period in 2021, the air cargo volume of Asia-Pacific airlines increased by 4.9% and the available capacity increased by 11.4% in January. The freight volume of North American airlines decreased by 1.2%, and the capacity increased by 8.7%. The freight volume of European airlines increased by 7% and the capacity increased by 18.8%. The cargo volume of Middle East airlines dropped by 4.6%, showing the weakest performance in all regions, and the capacity increased by 6.2%. The cargo volume of Latin American airlines increased by 11.9%, while the capacity decreased by 12.9%. The freight volume of African airlines increased by 12.4%, the strongest performance among all regions, and the capacity increased by 13%.

In terms of passenger transport market, the data shows that since November 2021, when the travel restrictions were tightened again due to Omicron strain, compared with December, the recovery of domestic and international air passenger transport slowed down in January 2022.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that began at the end of February also had an impact on the air passenger transport market. Data show that in 2021, the Ukrainian market accounted for 3.3% of European passenger traffic and 0.8% of global passenger traffic. Russia's international market accounts for 5.7% of European passenger traffic (excluding Russia's domestic market) and 1.3% of global passenger traffic.

In addition, the sudden surge in fuel prices has also put pressure on the cost of airlines. "As of March 4th, the transaction price of aviation fuel exceeded $140/barrel. After the COVID-19 epidemic crisis, the industry is trying to reduce losses, and the sharp increase in costs is a huge challenge. If the price of aviation fuel is kept at such a high level, it will affect the airline's revenue for a long time. " Willie walsh said.