What is the trend of international container freight rate?

Affected by factors such as the continuous strong demand for international container transportation and the obstruction of logistics supply chain caused by the global spread of COVID-19 epidemic, last year, the supply and demand of international container shipping market was out of balance, the capacity of container ships was tight, and the prices of many links in the shipping logistics supply chain rose. What is the trend of international container shipping market in the future? Will prices continue to "soar"?

As for the supply of empty containers, the export of heavy containers on international routes in China is generally larger than the import of heavy containers. In addition, China took the lead in controlling the epidemic situation and resuming production. A large number of goods demand began to shift to China, and the demand for empty containers increased substantially. At the same time, the poor circulation of containers abroad and the slow return of empty containers by sea lead to the shortage of empty containers.

At the same time, the gap in shipping capacity is not so easy to fill. According to the data of Alphaliner, an international shipping consultancy, by the end of 2021, the total number of container ships in the world was 24.97 million TEUs, with an annual increase of 4.6%. Except for the necessary maintenance, all the ships available in the world have been put into the market. Due to the low elasticity of supply of shipping capacity, it usually takes more than 18 months for new ship orders to be put on the market, and the supply cannot achieve rapid growth in the case of a surge in demand.

More serious than the shortage of transportation capacity is the poor transportation turnover. "Overseas ports, especially those on the west coast of the United States, are heavily congested, and the inland collection and distribution system is not smooth, resulting in serious loss of capacity." Jia Dashan said. According to statistics, last year, the scheduled rate of ships in 50 major ports in the world dropped significantly, and the comprehensive scheduled rate index of global trunk routes published by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was within 20% for a long time (generally 72%-73% before the epidemic). Although it has improved this year, by April, it only rose to about 28%. Analysis shows that this imbalance between supply and demand will continue in the short term.

The freight rate will still run at a high level