Shipping companies are bullish on freight rates in the second half of the year
In the first half of 2022, under the influence of Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 epidemic and other big environments, freight rates in various market segments fluctuated in different degrees. In the second half of the year, the trend of market freight rate is the focus of attention from all walks of life.
A few days ago, a survey of shipping companies conducted by China Shipping Prosperity Index Compilation Office of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center showed that nearly half of shipping companies believe that the market freight rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, and 12.5% of them believe that the freight rate will rise by more than 50% in the second half of the year. 9.56% of enterprises think it will increase by 30%~50%, and 29.41% of enterprises think it will increase by 10% ~ 30%; However, 27.21% of enterprises indicated that the freight rate in the second half of the year was basically stable compared with that in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation range of freight rate was within 10%.
There are both container transport enterprises and dry bulk transport enterprises with similar views. Among the container transport enterprises surveyed, 55% said that the freight rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, among which 20% thought it would rise by 30%~50%, and 35% said the freight rate would rise by about 10%~30%. And 35% of the enterprises indicated that the freight rate will fluctuate within the range of 10% in the second half of the year.
Among the dry bulk transport enterprises surveyed, 58.82% said that the freight rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, of which 5.88% thought it would rise by 30%~50% and 52.94% said it would rise by 10% ~ 30%. However, 26.47% of enterprises indicated that the freight rate will fluctuate steadily in the second half of the year, and the freight rate will change within 10%.
International shipping accounts for about 95% of China's foreign trade cargo transportation. Influenced by supply and demand, weather, policy, fuel price, port loading and unloading and other factors, the amplitude and frequency of ocean freight rate are obviously higher than the general commodity prices. Since 2019, the global container shipping market price has been rising all the way, which is more than five times higher than that in 2018, setting a record high in the history of container shipping. The rise of shipping price directly leads to the substantial increase of logistics cost of enterprises, especially for spot enterprises, the risk of freight rate fluctuation is even more stressful, which makes them miserable.
This difficult problem is expected to be solved. The reporter learned that in order to better help spot enterprises manage the risk of price fluctuation, the container freight index futures products based on Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) are planned to be listed and traded in the near future. Recently, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center conducted a survey on the trading demand of container, port and shipping service enterprises for this index futures. The results show that over 40% of port and shipping enterprises have trading demand for this freight index futures. Among them, the demand of container transportation enterprises is high, but 23.08% of them are worried about the high risks in the futures market. Among other shipping service enterprises and port enterprises, there are also some related personnel who say they don't know the specific situation of the index for the time being and lack futures operation.